I've got a piece of hardy grass growing up between the cracks of an old and weathered picnic table out alongside the shed -- in January!  (Jan. 7, 2007)

Alongside Barbara's house, an Easter Lily from last spring -- stuck out there to give it a chance to live if it could survive over the summer, thrives -- still in January, no less!

What a contrast from past winters.  On the left alongside my neighbor's home to the rear of my house, looking out my office back door, is his shrink-wrapped power boat.  In his backyard are the little kids' play vehicles.  (Jan. 13, 2007)

My woodpile, which started out about half-full this year as I had a good cord left over from last, is diminishing -- but nothing like in past winters, when the racks were near-full, and by now were half-empty.  I should have enough to get through the next month or two, playing it close to the vest for the remainder of this season with what's supposed to be inevitably heading our way.

I didn't make it -- blinked first and ordered another cord of firewood.  (Feb. 18)

The Boston Globe
Sunday, January 7, 2007

January springs a surprise
Record warm weather saves on energy costs,
but hurts some businesses
By Bruce Mohl and Peter J. Howe

Record-breaking temperatures are pushing thermostats down across New England, cutting heating use roughly 20 percent to generate significant savings that could boost the economy.

The savings has not only rippled across households but also government, schools, and businesses that can spend less on heat and snow removal. Other sectors have also benefited, such as construction companies, which can take on projects they normally would have put off until the spring. At the same time, traditional cold-weather industries, such as ski resorts, are hurting while retailers are finding it hard to unload snow shovels, wool coats, and hats.

"In general, power bills and energy bills are lower, so that's a positive," said Rakesh Shankar, a senior economist with Moody's Economy.com.

So far this winter Boston's "degree days" -- a measurement of heating demand -- was 17 percent below last year's levels, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the government agency that collects climate data. Homeowners and businesses in Chatham, at the elbow of Cape Cod, have been enjoying 22 percent less demand for heating than in a normal year, while many parts of New England are down about 18 percent.

Those figures track closely with a steep drop in sales by the region's biggest natural gas utility, KeySpan Energy Delivery New England. From Oct. 1 through Dec. 30, KeySpan sold 19 percent less gas to its 1 million Massachusetts and New Hampshire customers than it had forecast, according to KeySpan spokeswoman Carmen Fields.

At NStar, the utility's typical customers used 20 percent less natural gas in December than they did the year before, shaving about $50 off the average monthly bill of $233, said spokeswoman Caroline Allen.

Yesterday Boston broke another record, with the temperature reaching 69 degrees, 7 degrees higher than the previous record for Jan. 6, set in 1913. The National Weather Service says the November-December period in Boston was the warmest on record, averaging 45.1 degrees. The average temperature in December was 6.3 degrees above normal. Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Weather Service, said an El Niño warming effect of moderate strength is expected to persist throughout the remainder of winter and in to spring. "Statistically, that would mean temperatures will average above normal," he said.

Depressed demand for heating fuels, caused by the warm weather, has added to the surplus of oil on world markets, which some economists expect could lower prices at the gas pump.

"The whole energy complex is coming down," said Kevin Lindemer, managing director at Global Insight Inc., an economic forecasting firm in Waltham. Lindemer estimated gasoline prices would be falling by 12 to 15 cents a gallon in the next couple weeks and could fall another 15 cents per gallon if the unseasonably warm weather continues.

The price s of heating oil and natural gas have been falling, but consumers have yet to see lower prices. Many utilities and heating oil companies purchased most of their fuels in advance of the winter when prices were high. A heating oil price survey released last week by the state Division of Energy Resources indicated the average price statewide was $2.37 a gallon, roughly where it has hovered since late summer.

"There's a lot of dealers stuck with product that they bought in advance to protect their customers," said Ken Williams, president of Scott-Williams Inc., a Quincy heating oil dealer. "As a result, prices haven't come down as fast as they might."

Joyce S. Rettstadt of Princeton said she doesn't know how much money she has saved on heating this winter but has complained to her heating oil dealer that her per-gallon price "hasn't dropped that much."

Rettstadt, 70, said she's a bit concerned about the warmest winter she can remember, which is making her apple tree blossom and forsythia come out. "This is crazy," she said. "It's really scary."

To some businesses, the unusual weather has been a boon. Sam McClain, chief executive of Capitol Construction in Everett, said the high temperature has allowed his company to do projects that normally would have been put off until spring, including brick and cement work and completing a three-story exterior stairwell at the Charles Hotel in Cambridge.

"We're picking up schedule items that we normally wouldn't be able to do this time of year," McClain said. He added that the high temperatures also save his company money. He can often do without portable propane heaters used to keep workers warm.

Golf courses also benefit. In Lakeville, both Heritage Hill Country Club and Poquoy Brook Country Club opened yesterday and today. On Cape Cod, the Dennis Highlands Golf Course remains open, along with perennial winter golf venue Hyannis Golf Club at Iyanough Hills, which normally closes only when snow has fallen.

"This is a gift," said Trish Frates, lounge manager at the Poquoy Brook golf course, where by noon yesterday 103 players were on the links and another 80 were booked to play today . The course is often able to stay open on mild winter days, but far more often this year, which is helping a lot of club employees get more work hours.

"We're just hoping we don't end up with a terrible, rainy spring that takes the gift away," Frates said.

Other businesses aren't doing so well. Across Vermont, most big ski resorts that have snowmaking capability are reporting that roughly half or fewer of their trails are open. No ski resort in Vermont reported any new natural snow in the last 72 hours as of yesterday morning.

Around North Conway, N.H., in the Mount Washington Valley, "businesses had a tough challenge to overcome this week" persuading people from further south in New England who have no snow in their backyards that there's enough up north to warrant a visit, said Marti Mayne, a spokeswoman for the valley chamber of commerce.

Indeed, the prospect of having to ski on all or mostly man-made snow, instead of the real stuff, has discouraged many skiers from heading north.

Brian LeBlanc, a technology consultant from Gardner, has stopped buying season passes and instead earmarks $500 to $700 for daily lift tickets when conditions are good.

"I wouldn't say this is the worst I have ever seen, but it is definitely as bad as any season I can remember in the past 10 or 15 years," he said. "I don't feel any urge to go ski on very limited man-made snow and pay $60 or $70 for a lift ticket, plus gas and food, to ski on sub-par conditions."

The weather is also wreaking havoc with retailers. Mark Johnson, a manager at Curry Ace Hardware in Quincy, said snow blowers, ice melts, and even window washing fluid just aren't selling the way they normally do at this time of the year. "With this weather here, we've still got people buying rakes and leaf bags," he said.

Retailers reported weak sales in December, in part because of warm weather, and said the situation may get worse if temperatures remain high. Jon B. Hurst, president of the Massachusetts Retailers Association, said most stores typically start stocking spring clothing sometime in February but right now the shelves are bulging with winter items.

"You've got to clean the shelves somehow," Hurst said. "Hopefully the weather helps you, but if not, pricing has got to do it."

Patricia Boudrot, a spokeswoman for Filene's Basement, said the warm weather has affected sales at all retailers. "Because of that," she said, "there's some real great deals right now at Filene's Basement."Sunday, January 7, 2007

January springs a surprise
Record warm weather saves on energy costs, but hurts some businesses
By Bruce Mohl and Peter J. Howe, Globe Staff | January 7, 2007

Record-breaking temperatures are pushing thermostats down across New England, cutting heating use roughly 20 percent to generate significant savings that could boost the economy.

The savings has not only rippled across households but also government, schools, and businesses that can spend less on heat and snow removal. Other sectors have also benefited, such as construction companies, which can take on projects they normally would have put off until the spring. At the same time, traditional cold-weather industries, such as ski resorts, are hurting while retailers are finding it hard to unload snow shovels, wool coats, and hats.

"In general, power bills and energy bills are lower, so that's a positive," said Rakesh Shankar, a senior economist with Moody's Economy.com.

So far this winter Boston's "degree days" -- a measurement of heating demand -- was 17 percent below last year's levels, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the government agency that collects climate data. Homeowners and businesses in Chatham, at the elbow of Cape Cod, have been enjoying 22 percent less demand for heating than in a normal year, while many parts of New England are down about 18 percent.

Those figures track closely with a steep drop in sales by the region's biggest natural gas utility, KeySpan Energy Delivery New England. From Oct. 1 through Dec. 30, KeySpan sold 19 percent less gas to its 1 million Massachusetts and New Hampshire customers than it had forecast, according to KeySpan spokeswoman Carmen Fields.

At NStar, the utility's typical customers used 20 percent less natural gas in December than they did the year before, shaving about $50 off the average monthly bill of $233, said spokeswoman Caroline Allen.

Yesterday Boston broke another record, with the temperature reaching 69 degrees, 7 degrees higher than the previous record for Jan. 6, set in 1913. The National Weather Service says the November-December period in Boston was the warmest on record, averaging 45.1 degrees. The average temperature in December was 6.3 degrees above normal. Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Weather Service, said an El Niño warming effect of moderate strength is expected to persist throughout the remainder of winter and in to spring. "Statistically, that would mean temperatures will average above normal," he said.

Depressed demand for heating fuels, caused by the warm weather, has added to the surplus of oil on world markets, which some economists expect could lower prices at the gas pump.

"The whole energy complex is coming down," said Kevin Lindemer, managing director at Global Insight Inc., an economic forecasting firm in Waltham. Lindemer estimated gasoline prices would be falling by 12 to 15 cents a gallon in the next couple weeks and could fall another 15 cents per gallon if the unseasonably warm weather continues.

The price s of heating oil and natural gas have been falling, but consumers have yet to see lower prices. Many utilities and heating oil companies purchased most of their fuels in advance of the winter when prices were high. A heating oil price survey released last week by the state Division of Energy Resources indicated the average price statewide was $2.37 a gallon, roughly where it has hovered since late summer.

"There's a lot of dealers stuck with product that they bought in advance to protect their customers," said Ken Williams, president of Scott-Williams Inc., a Quincy heating oil dealer. "As a result, prices haven't come down as fast as they might."

Joyce S. Rettstadt of Princeton said she doesn't know how much money she has saved on heating this winter but has complained to her heating oil dealer that her per-gallon price "hasn't dropped that much."

Rettstadt, 70, said she's a bit concerned about the warmest winter she can remember, which is making her apple tree blossom and forsythia come out. "This is crazy," she said. "It's really scary."

To some businesses, the unusual weather has been a boon. Sam McClain, chief executive of Capitol Construction in Everett, said the high temperature has allowed his company to do projects that normally would have been put off until spring, including brick and cement work and completing a three-story exterior stairwell at the Charles Hotel in Cambridge.

"We're picking up schedule items that we normally wouldn't be able to do this time of year," McClain said. He added that the high temperatures also save his company money. He can often do without portable propane heaters used to keep workers warm.

Golf courses also benefit. In Lakeville, both Heritage Hill Country Club and Poquoy Brook Country Club opened yesterday and today. On Cape Cod, the Dennis Highlands Golf Course remains open, along with perennial winter golf venue Hyannis Golf Club at Iyanough Hills, which normally closes only when snow has fallen.

"This is a gift," said Trish Frates, lounge manager at the Poquoy Brook golf course, where by noon yesterday 103 players were on the links and another 80 were booked to play today . The course is often able to stay open on mild winter days, but far more often this year, which is helping a lot of club employees get more work hours.

"We're just hoping we don't end up with a terrible, rainy spring that takes the gift away," Frates said.

Other businesses aren't doing so well. Across Vermont, most big ski resorts that have snowmaking capability are reporting that roughly half or fewer of their trails are open. No ski resort in Vermont reported any new natural snow in the last 72 hours as of yesterday morning.

Around North Conway, N.H., in the Mount Washington Valley, "businesses had a tough challenge to overcome this week" persuading people from further south in New England who have no snow in their backyards that there's enough up north to warrant a visit, said Marti Mayne, a spokeswoman for the valley chamber of commerce.

Indeed, the prospect of having to ski on all or mostly man-made snow, instead of the real stuff, has discouraged many skiers from heading north.

Brian LeBlanc, a technology consultant from Gardner, has stopped buying season passes and instead earmarks $500 to $700 for daily lift tickets when conditions are good.

"I wouldn't say this is the worst I have ever seen, but it is definitely as bad as any season I can remember in the past 10 or 15 years," he said. "I don't feel any urge to go ski on very limited man-made snow and pay $60 or $70 for a lift ticket, plus gas and food, to ski on sub-par conditions."

The weather is also wreaking havoc with retailers. Mark Johnson, a manager at Curry Ace Hardware in Quincy, said snow blowers, ice melts, and even window washing fluid just aren't selling the way they normally do at this time of the year. "With this weather here, we've still got people buying rakes and leaf bags," he said.

Retailers reported weak sales in December, in part because of warm weather, and said the situation may get worse if temperatures remain high. Jon B. Hurst, president of the Massachusetts Retailers Association, said most stores typically start stocking spring clothing sometime in February but right now the shelves are bulging with winter items.

"You've got to clean the shelves somehow," Hurst said. "Hopefully the weather helps you, but if not, pricing has got to do it."

Patricia Boudrot, a spokeswoman for Filene's Basement, said the warm weather has affected sales at all retailers. "Because of that," she said, "there's some real great deals right now at Filene's Basement."

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Old Man Winter, who?
By Shaun Tolson

“The day we went to the Everglades it was like this,” said Dave Fudge of Weymouth, walking shirtless at Carson Beach in South Boston yesterday.

Fudge, who just returned from a vacation in Florida, boasted a dark copper tan and said it felt like he was still on vacation.

“We’re trying to pretend,” he said.

You didn’t need much of an imagination yesterday to harbor tropical dreams. The mercury soared to a high of 69 degrees - the second record-breaking day in a row - and easily surpassed the previous Jan. 6 high of 62 degrees set in 1913.

With windsurfers and kite surfers skimming along Pleasure Bay and inline skaters and joggers in shorts and T-shirts gliding along the boardwalk leading to Castle Island, the only reminders of winter were the bare trees in the park.

“If you can’t make snow angels, you might as well make sand angels,” Cynthia Coull of Dorchester said as she flopped down in the Carson Beach sand with her two children, 3-year-old Mirabelle and 5-year-old Martin.

“I’m not going to miss my chance to go windsurfing in January,” said an anonymous Pleasure Bay enthusiast as he took a few moments to soak up the sun.

But Old Man Winter is stirring from his slumber. A cold front will bring cooler temperatures and wetter weather this week, according to the National Weather Service.

Today’s temperatures are expected to be in the low 50s. But with rain expected late tonight into early tomorrow and temperatures in the upper 40s, conditions may remain above average for this time of year.

It just won’t feel like the Everglades again anytime soon.

Forecasters say Bay State should brace for season's 1st big chill
By Brian R. Ballou, Globe Staff

We've basked in fall-like days, leaving our parkas at home and toting picnics to the park. But our unseasonably warm winter will come to an abrupt end by early next week, replaced by bone-shivering Arctic blasts that may stay through next month, according to forecasters.

"It looks like we're going to have one more mild spurt this weekend, but by early next week, it should be dramatically cold, and that will likely last through a good chunk of February," said Carl Erickson, a meteorologist for AccuWeather, a national weather forecasting service.

While high temperatures reached nearly 50 degrees yesterday, sleet is likely by Monday night and highs are not expected to rise above 30 degrees Tuesday.

The National Weather Service issued an alert yesterday afternoon about the impending cold weather. "It's going to be quite a shock for people whose blood has thinned out because of the warm weather we've had this season," said meteorologist Glenn Field in Taunton. "We'd just want to get the word out to people, especially the homeless, that it will get very, very cold soon."

Jim Greene, Boston's Emergency Shelter Commission director, said the city has a network of first responders and others who keep an eye out for the homeless, making sure they have accommodations during cold weather.

"We are worried people might be caught napping because it has been so mild," he said. "My observations downtown, I've noticed there are a number of homeless not dressed adequately for the deep cold. ."

The warmer-than-usual weather so far this winter is due to an El Niño event, Erickson said. Strong, warm, westerly winds across North America have bottled up the cold winds to the north that usually dip into New England. But forecasters have been seeing a weakening of those winds, uncorking Arctic air from the north.

Freezing weather descended on much of the West yesterday, producing ice-slick roads and dropping snow in Kansas, Nevada, and Midwestern states.

Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for AccuWeather, said this winter might mimic those of 1957-58, 1965-66, and 1977-78, which all started out mild but produced several heavy snowstorms and blizzards as the winter evolved.

"There are indications that this winter could parallel severe winters of the past," he said.

Maine dealers say firewood isn't selling

PORTLAND, Maine -- After years of increased demand for firewood because of high energy costs, some firewood dealers find themselves caught with too much supply and not enough demand because of a relatively balmy winter and stable heating oil prices.

Thousands of cords of unsold firewood are piled up across southern and central Maine, and some firewood dealers have begun cutting prices.

Michael Scott of Waterboro was offering seasoned wood for $220 a cord, but recently went down to $205. That hasn't helped much, he said, because people don't buy what they don't need.

Tim Chick, a logger and truck driver in Gorham, is working with several other dealers and is currently selling seasoned wood for even less, at $190.

"It's still not moving at that price," he said.

Just four years ago, there was a firewood shortage. Truckers took advantage of good prices for hardwood pulp that year, leaving less oak and maple for firewood. Then oil prices spiked during an unusually cold winter.

These factors pushed firewood prices higher, and the trend continued for a time with prices rising roughly $50 per cord since 2003, the Portland Press Herald reported.

But the weather has not cooperated this season. November was the warmest on record in Portland, and December was the second-warmest on record.

The latest price survey from the Maine Office of Energy Independence and Security put the average statewide price for No. 2 heating oil at $2.26 a gallon. That's a dime below the price at this time last year.

Stable heating oil prices and the warmer-than-usual weather has provided little incentive for customers to throw another log on the fire.

R.C. McLucas Trucking Inc. of Porter borrowed money to buy a $100,000 firewood processor and two delivery trucks last year, but the investment won't pay off this winter.

"A lot of people were thinking that the oil was going to stay up and everybody would go to wood," said Gayla McLucas. "But that's not happening."